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Jul 17, 2007 in My Shout Outs
Some stock market news today on the STI, courtesy of the ST. I will post comments below.
TAKING STOCK
STI retreats from record high on slight profit-taking
By Arthur Poon
PROFIT-TAKING sent the Straits Times Index (STI) a tad lower yesterday, after last Friday’s record close.
The STI rose briefly to an intra-day high of 3,688.58 in early trading – gaining more than 30 points at one point – but succumbed to selling pressure soon after. It eventually finished the session at 3,653.23, down a slight 1.38 points.
Analysts say investors betting on further near-term upside for the local bourse could be disappointed. They warn that a correction may be on the cards.
‘The multiple warning signs at this juncture could point to an impending correction for the STI, as we move into the results season for the second quarter,’ said OCBC Investment Research analyst Ritesh Menon yesterday.
He pointed out two historical factors indicating a possible correction ahead.
Mr Menon said: ‘The STI has never rallied for more than 21/2 years without a significant correction, and it has been three years and four months since a significant correction.’
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STRAITS TIMES INDEX
He does not include, for example, the slump in February and March this year, when the STI fell about 10 per cent in a week, as the market bounced back quickly.
The second factor is that the STI is currently about 157 per cent above its 200-week moving average – the daily STI close on average over the last 200 weeks. He said that over the last 26 years, deviations of between 157 per cent and 168 per cent from that moving average had resulted in significant corrections.
Yesterday, losers led gainers by 455 to 417, with about 4.65 billion shares worth $2.52 billion traded.
Among the big winners yesterday was Keppel Corp, which jumped 40 cents to $13.30. Morgan Stanley had raised the rig-builder’s target price to $15 from $12, saying that new contract wins should drive Keppel’s earnings growth by 40 per cent and 20 per cent respectively for the next two years.
OCBC Bank, which has received final approval to operate a locally incorporated bank in China, gained five cents to $9.50.
China XLX Fertiliser gained a cent to $1.36, after inking a five-year distributorship deal with customer Sinochem Fertiliser.
Debutant CMZ Holdings, which makes zips in China, chalked up a 67 per cent premium over its 23-cent offer price to finish at 38.5 cents.
However, Singapore Airlines fell 20 cents to $19.40, after oil prices surged to a near one-year high of around US$74 a barrel due to supply concerns.
Also lower was service residence owner-operator The Ascott Group, down two cents to $1.86, despite unveiling that it has bought a property in Scotland for £24.7 million (S$76 million).
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So they predict a correction up ahead, purely based on technical analysis (TA). One point to note “Mr Menon said: ‘The STI has never rallied for more than 21/2 years without a significant correction, and it has been three years and four months since a significant correction.’” As you see, it has been 3 years 4 months, which meant the market did not follow the trend for the first time.
Here is your next lesson:
- Do NOT base future trends on history. ie, what has happened in the last 12 months (or decade for that matter) does not imply it WILL follow. History does not determine the future. Remember.
Yesterday saw a lot of people bailing out, as people profit took. The volume was high yet the STI closed down, with more losers than gainers. Felt like a typical Friday, but I suppose the market is a little jittery over the profit announcement season here, as well as announcements due in China and US. TA wise, the STI isn’t going that well. If you remember a month or two ago, JPMorgan issued a correction warning of at least 10% in the next 6 months. Traditionally aug-oct are bad months for the stock market. Traditionally. After the profit announcements, people profit take and stay at the side if there’s a lack of fresh leads. Traditionally, May is also a bad month. But this year saw the STI surge instead. See? History does not always determine the future. It could give a good indicator of the performance of the stock or trust (as in unit trusts) but do not base the future with what you see now.
There will definitely be a correction, sparked off by a bourse perhaps that will send regional and perhaps global bourses tumbling. Question is when? No one really has the answer. But my take at this juncture is to be cautious and minimise holdings. While I have just increased holdings, I will be looking to slim down 2 counters soon. By the end of the month hopefully. I will stay vested in small caps stocks as they tend to be favorites when the economy drops. While others bargain buy big caps, I have only limited ‘bullets’ and hence, prefer smaller caps with lots of room for growth. Remember, hold more than 10 lots as far as possible. If you cannot own 10, chances are it is too expensive for you.
I am hoping to consolidate my portfolio to get my bullets and profits back and wait at the side lines for some bargain buying. We could see some very interesting market movements in Q3.