Life For Rent

That’s what that caused it. From the outside of my house all the way to ACS Barker Road. Makes me wonder what is the point of the human barricade when the detention centre is SOOO far away. I won’t even walk, let alone someone with a limp. The use of dogs should pick up the scent, and if the scent stops isn’t it obvious that he left in a vehicle maybe? The human barricade is interesting. 1 NSF military soldier, 1 gurkha, and 1 SOF soldier, in that order.. continous all the way from Whitley Road and it ends at ACS Barker.

Now everyone is asking, will he be found? I am quite sure they won’t rest till he is found. But how can such a thing happen, in broad daylight? Which is worse. A pair of armed and wanted robbers on the loose, or a terrorist leader? He doesn’t need to be armed to be dangerous. I trust MHA and intelligence will be doing all they can.

I’m feeling a little under the weather….. and I need a hair cut. Arrrrgh. And liang cha.

Gym training later. I am soooooo screwed.

 The HKG government is also sharing its surplus package. And has cut taxes too. Some speculate SGP will follow suit but I think Singapore is doing it right. A rate cut benefits the rich people only. The goverment and the poor has nothing to gain and everything to lose. I do appreciate the discount in taxes and yes I do think our government is doing a pretty good job in avoiding what happened in 1990s when we ran into a deficit. Maybe it is just me, but I think we are doing a better job than a lot of countries out there,  including the ‘big’ countries. And yes I am comfortable here. Not perfect but ideal. Worst thing I wanna feel is to be a second class citizen within your own home. However I still maintain there is no heaven on earth. I would love to hop around for work and all, but end of the day I would still like my base to be here and not in another country. Holidaying, and working elsewhere is one. Becoming a citizen of another country, is another thing.

I saw many vehicles with sirens flashing on my way home. All headed towards Whitley Road… Kinda unusual.. but now in the news I can see why perhaps-

JI leader escapes from detention centre, manhunt on

THE leader of the Singapore Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) network, Mas Selamat Kastari, escaped from the Whitley Road detention centre at about 4.05 pm on Wednesday, said the Ministry of Home Affairs in a statement.

A massive manhunt is underway to track down the escaped detainee, who walks with a limp.

‘He is not known to be armed. Extensive police resources have been deployed to track him down,’ said the ministry statement.

The public is asked to contact the police at 999 if they know of his whereabouts.

First and foremost, one thing to comment on STI has of yesterday’s chart, is that the accumulation/distribution indicator shows a positive divergence (higher lows) though capped at resistance line still. Has yet to break out of symmetrical triangle ARRRGH.

YZJ.. everyone’s favorit stock. Perhaps higher cost of steel amongst other factors defied strong earnings growth and saw this stock went down instead! How does FA explain that? Tough. Sentiment probably took over. Blue arrows point sell signals in the past. Distribution line shows long term lower low and a lower high, extremely bearish! CMF showed this stock remained -ve for almost the entire period. Perhaps when Goola said when it broke 1.85 the target is now 80c. She could be right. Today it broke the important 1.2 support line. Let’s wait for tomorrow to confirm. If it does continue downtrend, this becomes a good shorting target. As seen by fibo support line at 123.6% (DAMN LOW, below 100% already) the support is capped at 80c. Near term it is not common for a stock to break this line. I don’t think it has happened other than some kelong stock that went from a few dollars down to 7c… lalala.. So what is the next step? Wait for the break to be confirmed. This is because of whipsaw effect. If it trends 1.18.. then 1.15 with no sign of a reversal then it looks like its next downtrend is confirmed.

UOL looks quite alright. Accumulation line shows a symmetric triangle, or you could even put it in as an ascending triangle. Bullish if that is the case. Looking to break the all important 4.28 resistance now. Indicators have not shown much of a sell signal. However when MFI is above 80%, taking new positions is high risk as your margin of safety is not there should the counter decide to do a healthy retracement to bring it back to a comfortable 70%. No sign of a trend weakening as of yet.

Ferrochina..oh gawd why must you do this to me. I am gonna hold onto this till Friday. But in case I do not ‘make it’ as much as I would like to, please slap me! 3 sell signals have occurred. Distribution line is forming lower highs capped at its support line now. This is a descending triangle of its own. Bearish. It also shows that during this distribution, the stock is weakening. This is not like a stock that is supposed to report strong earnings as insiders will normally push this up. Everything points to something similar to a retracement. You can almost see the 3 black crow candlesticks. Yet another bearish indicator.  Nothing positive. All negative. Sigh. What am I doing? Trust my chart, or my si fu. You see, sometimes charts are not accurate. Maybe cause insiders don’t really know anything. Indicators check on the strength underwater. Yet things can turn 360 around. Usually there is a warning. What’s more this is a china stock… like Synear. eeeek. Bear this chart in mind. Kick me if my chart is right and the ‘inside’ news is wrong.

STX PO… tikam a bit today. Accumulation line shows a higher low, ascending triangle. Early MACD shows bullish crossover. The default MACD is waiting for confirmation as it is a little delayed. Vol is average. Upside for now capped at $3.24

GoldenAgri sell signals have appeared. My mom owns this since a LOOONG time ago so I am helping her track. She’s lucky.. Picked the right one for now. Whether she is gonna sell or just take profit, it is up to her. Golden agri is a good stock I feel. The recent rally has no strength. Look at the accumulation line. It is flat. Hence this rally cannot be sustained for too long. My guess is, BBs are playing up this stock to sell higher. Possibly. But there are a lot of retailers too, as the line is flat, and not negative. Unlike fake rallies I have shared with you guys here. Early MACD shows a bearish crossover. MFI pointing back down. This needs another day to confirm. But I would take profit at this juncture. This stock is one of the very few that goes climbs under such conditions. A good hedge?

Wall street things it has seen a bottom short term though the lows will be tested again later. I sure hope so. That will probably help Asian bourses rally a little. I won’t be popping the champagne yet. Caveat Emptor. We are dealing with money. This is no game.

Has anyone realised what a big deal being a secretary is? Look at the huge list of pre-requisits. Able to MSN. Reply Emails. Make reservations on line 1. Gossiping away with a friend at line 2. Taking down appointments for the boss. All at the same time. I marvel at them all cause they all seem to be rather similar in nature. Generally nice people. But can be very loud when upset. My Ipod has never been more useful as I sit opposite to one at my work place. She’s great and all.. but perhaps it is just me that I find it hard to work in a chaotic and noisy environment. I can’t concentrate! I am definitely not the “ER Physician” type. But they’re definitely one heck a bunch of multi-tasking experts. Imagine having to deal with so many people throughout the company and organising stuff… making coffee for the boss’s guests and all. Honestly I can’t do that job man. Then again I haven’t seen a male secretary yet. Anyone has come across one or knows of one?

I was chatting with beckie, a friend of mine who’s in Korea for work attachment it seems. She commented that the guys there are super vain. The girls in Singapore can’t even be compared. The guys there love to dress up, doll up here and there, carry pink bags, hold hands with other guys… yet they are straight, and homophobic. The irony of it! How true is  this? Maybe someone who’s been to Korea long enough can comment on it. Seriously, the cultural differences there and elsewhere is nothing short of being spectacular it seems. One has to really see it for himself it seems!!!

Went to my fav curry chicken noodle stall near golden shoe food centre today. Realised the prices have jumpd 50c, as with the wanton mee stall next door. My fav kopi stall and wanton mee stall as of yesterday are still maintaining prices.

There you go! The effects of inflation. It seems inflation hits the up market areas more. So the smaller ones are spared. Not that they have much of a choice in this intensively competitive industry. Raise too much and you scare customers away. So there are ways out of the sharp increase in inflation still. That is the good news. The bad news? Inflation seems one way. And it is up only. Does not appear to ‘correct’ that much. In a downturn, inflation could kill. Literally. However as time goes on, people learn how to combat the increase so that’s good overall.

 As for me, am I resigned to eating my $3.50 wanton (large) mee forever? Maybe. Till the prices are increased too. Eeeek. Will our salaries jump 5% too, just to cover inflation? Has anyone read about the property market and how home owners who need to sell are paying agents more just to get rid of their property? Perhaps this is what I have been waiting for…. hmm.. a buyer’s market.

Recently the spotlight is on private schools that offer dubious degree mills, questionable qualifications by the dean and lecturers, as well as inadequet facilities. Finding out which school to head for and which program to take can be quite a headache.

I have my own personal comments on a work-study roadmap. I think what is important is to understand what do you hope to gain after getting a degree. From experience, regardless of a state university such as NUS or one offering a program from an external university, one must consider what does he or she hope to achieve. Is it the process of learning to improve oneself? Is it to get a better pay? Is it about being promoted to a managerial position? In terms of pay, what appears to be is this. The degree gives you that edge on your starting pay as a greenhorn. Generally if you have worked for 10 years, a degree is less likely to give you a good return on investment. Your pay hikes are more likely to come from your experience, contacts, opportunities etc. What seperates a diploma holder from a degree holder is in the STARTING pay. It does little otherwise. But think about it, a starting pay is important for your subsequent pay is likely to be based on that. Assume I stay within my industry of work and I begin with a starting pay of $3000. Be it increments or jumping to a new ship, the baseline has been set. A 10% increment on $3000 is definitely more than say $2000 if I held a diploma only. And then the rate compounds. So if you have been working for 10 years and want a degree to get a better pay, in my opinion, this is not a good return on investment. A degree is as good as it is (in terms of salary) during your FIRST job only.

On promotion, certain organisations require at least a degree. Not everyone can be a manager and even if you held a degree it does not guarantee you that position. On the other hand if you have VERY good people skills and all, you are more likely to get that promotion (let us exclude civil service where they benchmark you a lot on your academic background). On self-improvement, this is priceless. Great!

However from what I see, many people go for that degree as it has become a norm, and want that high salary. Take note that, a degree tells you what you have done. What you are is more important. ie, you need to sell yourself and what your skillsets are, not where you studied. It doesn’t really matter. Because in academics, can you really fight with the top student from Harvard University’s MBA program? Therefore, what sets you apart, and what your competitive edge is, all lies on who and what you are. Work on those soft skills.. Your managers like a person not cause he has an MBA, but cause his direct report has good hard and soft skills. When you are likable, it is a lot easier. You’ll find people coming to you with job offers because they like you and want you around to work with them.

The reason why a lot of management jobs these days (along with most jobs actually) require a degree, is because going through the learning process helps sharpen your skillsets. When you go for higher learning, the process of learning takes you to a new level. You see things differently. You process and analyze things differently. Ever met with someone who has a very high IQ or is pretty gifted academically? You’ll find some can be pretty eccentric. They look at things differently. It is not what you study, but the process of learning. Of course among professions such as law and medicine you must have the relevant academic background. But in most jobs you will find all they ask for is ‘a degree of any discipline’, and that implies they want someone who has gone through that process of learning.

I have no bias with someone who hasn’t gotten a degree, or awe over someone who has enough qualifications to fill up an A4 size paper. Reason being, no one is pefect. Someone can be really smart in maths, but he cannot be smart in medicine, law, fixing a pipe, using the computer, playing music… etc. It is what a person can do, rather than what a person has. Take MM Lee Kuan Yew. You’ll marvel over what he has done and achieved in the past few decades. He was one of the first graduates from the presently known NUS in law. He has been given honoury doctorates from countless countries. He can call himself Dr Lee Kuan Yew if he so wishes but what is the point? A degree is a recognition of the work you put through. How you use it, determines where you end up in life.

Have you met someone who has an impressive list of credentials, yet somehow he/she appears like the most annoying person on earth? If you’re hiring, do you wanna hire this person?

So why am I talking bout education here apart from the article. The education industry is a good industry to invest in during a recession period. People still go to school during a recession. Maybe you take fewer holidays, but you still go to school and pay school fees. I think raffles education is pretty neat. Waiting for a good price to enter. As they say, when the recession is here and sentiment is bad and work is bad and all, a lot of people go back to school to re-train themselves. After all, they can’t find work anyway so they go to school and hopefully when they are done with it, the market turns around and more employment opportunities arrive.

So to sum it all, so what if you got a degree, and so what if you don’t have? I am an 2nd upper class honours graduate. Deemed ‘better’ than a diploma holder, but lower than someone with a post graduate qualification. Do not be surprised if the diploma holder can outdo me still. And I can outdo the one with a postgrad qualification. I am currently preparing for professional exams (similar to what sets a registrar apart from a medical officer) and visibly, where I head in my career depends a lot on this rather than the degree. It’s like an O level cert after you get your diploma. A paper qualification doesn’t guarantee anything. It is like a resume. Gets you to the interview. Showcases what you have done. Does not imply what you CAN definitely do. Whether you get the job or not, that is really up to you. How sad it seems? You study 3 or 4 years, go out to work and realise your degree gives you that edge for that first job only. Such is life. When everyone has a degree, it is not really that big a deal anymore.

As mentioned, STI being in a symmetric triangle, it implies the market sentiment is indecisive still. When market sentiment is not certain, things can go either way and it may influence all other counters regardless of indicators.

One case study done on the STI was on the Aug correction. It clearly describes how indicators showed that the rally was weakening and a correction was imminent. So you’ll have the chartists getting out while other take over their positions, only to realise they come head on with a correction. So this is an example of of an uptrend losing steam. Caveat emptor! My challenge was to identify accumulation and consolidation phases. Consolidation phases is when an uptrend stops and the price moves sidewards. Usually it is because the big boys are distributing the stocks to retail investors. Eventually when the buying has finished, the retail investors take over. With some bad news, it triggers a sell off. Human behavior has it that people sell on fear, still? Accumulation is the opposite. The price does not change much (tends to lean towards a minor upside) as funds begin collecting the stocks as retail investors dump. It forms an automatic support line, while consolidation phases tests the resistance line continuously.

Look at the period just before the Aug correction (which happens to be a healthy retracement).  Indicators all show a lower high, even as the index climbs. A lower high on indicators suggests that the uptrend is weakening and is not sustainable. I would have attempted to get out fast if I were a weak holder. Many counters also show sell signals around this juncture, confirming a downtrend. So this is one way  technical analysis helps. It detects under-water movements. In this case it tells me if a rally or uptrend is ‘fake’ where big boys are pushing prices up to sell at a high. In this scenario, I would not enter the market on long positions at all as I ‘smell’ prices coming down cheaper in the near future. You’ll observe when the selling is done the uptrend continues, with positive indicators and that is how an uptrend should show. This uptrend eventually reached an all time high, never to be tested again as of now.

Let’s look at Ferrochina. My buy price was at $1.04 and I took profit twice, locking in gains when sentiment changed and resistance lines were tested around the $1.25 regions. Why did I do this? To recap what I said before, and this has been tested many times in the past… In a bull trend, supports tend to hold and resistance broken. In a downtrend, resistance tends to hold while supports break one by one. Look at ferrochina’s lower high and lower low. You do not want to be caught with a falling knife! Hence when I wanted to buy this stock, I waited till buy signals show. Note that in a downtrend this can be risky still. My initial price to wait for was 97c but it failed to break below 1.02 so when it bounced off, I decided that I was prepared to take a 5c risk and went in. It proved to be the right decision on hindsight. A pennant formation has now formed. If you look closely, at around Feb 11 you will see a flag formation. The upside based on the flag pole is around 20c. That upside has now been fulfilled. Do take note of a gap between 1.37 and 1.46 when the counter jumped overnight. This gap is supposed to be covered but the covering may take a long time to appear. This gap is expected to cover on a downtrend, therefore if you ask me, it is very likely for the price to test 1.37 again. Do take note of the gap support between 1.37-1.46.  Forecast for this stock is for to break out of bullish pennant formation with volume and hence resume the uptrend. Why do pennant and flag formations occur. Generally these formations are VERY short term, and should not last more than 5 days. It must be accompanied by decreasing volume too. Usually the reason for this is contra and weak players being flushed out after a strong rally as investors lock in profits. Once done, the counter resumes it’s trend. Once again, a br eakout MUST be accompanied with high volume.  High volume is defined as a volume higher than the volume moving average indicator. Being vested in this counter, I hope the rally continues. Will be looking to sell on news.

Let’s look at China Energy. A descending triangle has formed and should it fail to breakout and begin to break below support level, it becomes a very good shorting target. I used fibo levels to determine downside, although one could use the size of the triangle ‘pole’ as the downside too, as I did above. Will be in my watchlist.

Hyflux shows a bullish flag too. My scans threw out this counter and it is possible it will break out and rally towards the new price target. Targets do not imply it will reach that level, it is just an estimate. Anything can change in the future. Same rules apply to breakouts.

So right now I am gonna write all these down in my notepad and prepare for tomorrow and see how things go. Till things become certain I am looking to sell some stuff on strength till a market direction is clear. I shall observe and wait. Not everyday can be a trading day. Itchy fingers will pay the price. As my remisier says, “slap my itchy fingers please!”  as we have both lost money due to impulse trading during unclear direction.

TA is NOT a crystal ball. It mainly increases your probability of getting things right. There are many ways to use TA and everyone has their own style. Some like to bottom fish while others prefer to forgo a couple cents and wait till a trend has been confirmed. Regardless of how it is done, the idea is to minimise losses and maximise  profits!

TA also teaches me on disciplined and I can see that as time goes on, I am improving with my strategies as a hybrid investor. My long term watch list while waiting for that one big crash, are counters within blue chips, as well as good counters like Swiber (at $2 again?) and Ezra for example. I will have to do an FA again there and then to ensure that I am buying into a company that is still fundamentally sound.  Pick fundamentally good companies with FA, and use TA to find the price to enter and profit take when sentiment changes. Well you could compound earnings if you believe that stocks in general outperform most forms of investments over time, using the ’72 rule’ for compounding. Why not? This is good in a bull market. In a bear market my strategies change, especially since we have not seen a bottom, hence to me, it does NOT make sense to buy and hold for now. Recognise the trends. Do not fight it. And remember, only the market is right. And it is ALWAYS right. You probably won’t go wrong choosing counters trading below NAV and are cheap. But the market will decide if it wants to catch up to its book value. It could disagree with you, for a very long time. Until something happens and interest comes in. Only time will tell. And the market will tell you when.

Thank you Thomas for the initial crash course back then and Jay for sharing your expertise! Hope to discuss some FA soon with you guys after we settle down with our respective work.

So, where are we headed tomorrow?  Will be break out to continue a bullish uptrend, or break down and test the critical supports before breaking to head to a new lower low (remember during a downtrend, supports are easily broken)? Don’t quote me, but based on some indicators I have, I am more inclined to go for the first scenario. But I could be wrong. I should be expecting a decision soon before the symmetric triangle converges. When it does converge, the triangle fails and we need to relook at things again. My experience is if it fails, we could head into a distribution/accumulation phase. Sideways, once again. But I am hoping for a decision, regardless which way it goes so that we all have a direction to go forth with. Some major companies reporting this week with some very important economic data from the US due too. These can prove to be triggering factors for a breakout/breakdown.

Have a good week all!

One of the things that were reinforced in technical analysis is profit protection. Many a times, when we want to do a transaction, we look at how much we stand to gain. How many of us remember what we stand to loose? I believe this is VERY important and even I forget this so I am penning this down to remind myself of it. Worry about your possible losses and the profits will come naturally. It is TRUE.

Say you have a capital of $20,000. How much are you willing to lose? Say you set the % at 2. This means you need to lose 50 times consecutively to lose half your capital. Many of us always forget this.

Say I buy a stock at $5. Resistance at 5.2, support at 4.9. Taking into account a 4% margin (to avoid whipsaw) on support level, my cut loss is around 4.85 for example. This is a 15c downside. For every 1 lot, this represents $150.

2% of $20,000 is  $400, This implies I can buy around 2 lots only to stick to this rule. If I went ahead and buy 10 lots, and I had to cut loss, my losses will be $1500. What happens is, on a bad streak, the capital will plunge very quickly. This is not what you want. I always forget to do this calculation but I feel this is important. End of the day we want to minimise losses and maximise profits, right? So please bear this in mind when you go in with a trade. How much are you willing to lose. When you have this figure in mind, believe me, cutting loss is MUCH easier as you are mentally prepared and face less emotions. I have been doing trades and have gone through the emotional turmoil when prices plunge below and you hang on desperately. The losses will mount, because when it breaks a support, the next line is usually not just 5c away. It could be quite far and potentially you are looking at 50c loss in value. Buy and hold strategy in FA? Think about it. If one bought Yangzijiang at say $2.50. And we very clearly it has plunged since. When it broke $1.85 based on formation support, the new target was around $1.4. Today it has been hovering even lower at $1.25 region. How long will you see your breakeven point (buy price)? Very long…. In a bear market, resistance holds. Supports break. Sell signals work well. In a bull market, buy signals work very well, and support holds, while resistance tends to breakout. If you don’t protect your capital, how are you gonna do future trades? Unless you have unlimited money of course. So please do your sizing very carefully!

On profit protection. We must know when it is time to exit. Be it using a resistance line, or a price target or simply a trailing loss. A trailing stop loss protects your capital and profits when markets ‘U-turn’.

The formula is (High-breakeven)* % you want to protect.

Generally, the conservative may look at 95% while the aggressive one may look at 50%. The norm is around 75%.

Say the high of a stock is $5(currently trading at this high). I bought at $3, ie break even point and I want to protect 75% of my profits.

(5-3)*75% =  1.5

My trailing loss will be at $3+$1.5 = $4.5. This figure will change as prices move up. In this sense, you have protected 75% of your profits. Be disciplined with your stop loss and cut loss. I cannot emphasis how important this is. However humans being humans and their behavior do not change due to emotions, we will always be able to spot price movements clearly. So make use of that.

Here are some charts of HSI based on fibo. I would just like to illustrate a few points.

Refer to this long term chart. I have set the top point at its highest (the top is defined as a peak, that has retrace. If you are currently looking at the peak that has yet to retrace it CANNOT be treated as the highest point. Use the next highest point. Many people draw fibonacci retracement wrongly due to this) and the low point at the beginning of a bull trend, defined by a higher low. Why didn’t I use the earlier points in 2003? Because we do not see a higher low! In 2004, we spot a higher low, which is bullish and signifies the start of an uptrend.  Incidentally, a higher high was formed too, confirming this trend. Both conditions should meet to confirm an uptrend. Thus as you can see from a broader picture and a long term trend line, we are still within this uptrend.

Short term wise, we all know we are in downtrend. Hence, support lines that we broken now become resistance lines. I draw the fibo lines from bottom up to find resistance lines. Drawing from top down is for one to locate support levels, typically in a bullish cycle. In a bear market, we look for levels to suggest how far a rally can go. A fibonacci line can fail when its rules are violated. But this is a little complex and I will not go into it much. When the fibo is violated we need to redraw again and look for the levels once again. One point to note. A 38.2% retracement is healthy and normal, as stocks cannot go up in a straight line. They do not fall in one straight line either. There needs to be some ‘breathing space’. A 38.2% retracement is a ‘cha cha’ movement, ie move 3 steps ahead take 1 step back. A 50% line (if 38.2 is broken) tends to be strong and stocks are expected to bounce off this level. If it breaks, it confirms a very weak sentiment and one has to carefully relook at the market again to see if the underlying fundamentals have changed. When the bull cycles slowed down and support lines are broken one after another, and buy signals begin failing, it shows things have changed below.

Many will be asking for some sort of a forecast. As what I mentioned in an earlier posting, we have been recording higher lows which is rather bullish in nature. To confirm this, one has to take into account on a lot of things. Moving averages, volume, indicators, candlesticks and all.

That’s all for now. Will add onto stuff tomorrow if I have left some stuff out. Tired out and all now.  Feel free to ask me any questions and if I am able to respond I will.

Rach and gang together with my boy are out clubbing. I think they deserve their night out, while I work on my stuff. No complaints! And.. I have my U Squeeze! Ohhh it feels sooooo good….

Good night!

I have been asked if the we are still within a bull or bear market. Quite often actually. This is rather subjective. It depends on the time horizon. If you look at the long term and short term STI charts I posted, you’ll see what I mean.

What is an uptrend? An uptrend is defined by a higher high and a higher low. ie, a high point is higher than the previous peak, and the low point is higher than the previous low point. So you get an uptrend line, connecting all the higher lows.

A downtrend is when a lower high and a lower low is formed. A downtrend line connects all the lower high points. Point to note, avoid whipsaw. Whipsaws are deviations away from the trendline. It should be rather rare, a one off event within a major trendline at the very most.

Let’s see the short term STI chart. A mini symmetric triangle has formed. A confirmation of this triangle is the accompanying lower volume as the triangle converges at the end. Resistance is capped at 3150 and if broken with volume, it breaks out of the triangle on a bullish trend. Breakdown level is at 2960 level at major support.  The next levels to look out for regardless of support or resistance, is the next fibonacci level.

A symmetric triangle will break eventually but it is uncertain if it will be an up or downtrend. Based on daily AND weekly STI chart, bullish divergence on the indicators lean slightly towards the bullish side. Unfortunately a bullish double bottom formation failed to materialised, caused by bad sentiment probably.

Looking at this chart, you’ll see that:

Short term: Up (uptrend line)

Mid term: Down (mid term downtrend line)

Long term: Subjective. If I use 2004 data and draw the long term bull market trend, we are still within the trend. This is why analyst say we’re still not into a bear market yet. Yet some who draw a shorter line would have a different picture. So this is rather subjective. The use of long term indicators may help.

 The above is based on the past. What we want to see is the future, right? That is tough. I can still use the same short term line. I have no crystal ball to foresee the future (please introduce to me anyone who can), but based on some advanced techniques I use which are too complicated to show (messy chart) I do expect some correction towards the middle and end of the year. There is a bradley turn date in March (Astrological analysis??) which suggests a trend reversal. I usually prefer to wait for confirmation, rather than speculation. After all since I am using money in the market, I prefer a risk/reward ratio catered to my own preference.

As seen from the long term trend line, we seem to be within still. Noticed I am using weekly chart, and indicators appear to be pointing upwards, suggesting a bullish continuation? I definitely hope so!!!

Current holdings in portfolio worth some 108K. Zero short positions at the moment.

Tikam counters – Synear($1.04).

Reporting season short term holdings – Ferrochina($1.03), UOL ($3.73)

Some personal experience… generally in a downtrend, resistance will hold and supports are broken. ie, sell signals will work very well. In a bull trend, supports will hold well and buy signals work very well. The whole idea of TA is so that you do not fight against a trend. Identify the trend and wait for the right time to buy. Even for traders, not everyday is a trading day. I typically dislike sideway markets. Sideway markets may occur when the big boys have chased up the price and are releasing the stock slowly to retailers. So you get a week or two where prices hover around the same level, as BBs are releasing and retail investors are buying. Eventually it cracks and retail investors sell in panic. Distribution works this way. Accumulation is the opposite, where BBs are collecting quietly hence maintaining the price pretty well.

  ho ho ho… time to prepare for your vacation breaks for next year! While this year (2008) has 4 long weekends, 2009 has 8. You could take 4 days leave and get up to 36 days off!

For those who have yet to plan for 2008, here’s what’s available this year:

Labour DayWhen: Thursday, May 1

Apply for leave: May 2

Number of days off: 4

Hari Raya Puasa

When: Wednesday, Oct 1

Apply for leave: Oct 2 and Oct 3

Number of days off: 5

Deepavali

When: Tuesday, Oct 28

Apply for leave: Oct 27

Number of days off: 4

Christmas Day

When: Thursday, Dec 25

Apply for leave: Dec 26

Number of days off: 4