Life For Rent

My newest… fad.. or obssession maybe is… cufflings! Thanks to my colleague once again. I have 2 very nice cuffling’d shirts and I am gonna tailor make another few later. For 70 bucks, why not? Customed fit, customised shirt, great designs and material. Ok I haven’t gone there yet but was told it is egyptian cotton. Another plus to a custom fit is cause I have large arms and lats which makes the usual fits a little hard to move around with. Getting a larger fit goes out of shape on my frame so the best fit off the shelf is a comtemporary fit. Slim fits are never gonna make it on me.

SGX is being shorted till around $5 plus region. Jim Rogers, one who believes in value investing and is not a trader nor a shortist by nature, has been shorting citigroup. So much so recently he came out to say, Temasek and GIC are gonna lose money. Which I think is true short term. These people bought at a relatively higher price where cheap becomes cheaper. It doesnt matter if the stock is at its historic low. It makes no logic to go in just because it is at its historic low. There must be other factors.

So you have Rogers shorting all the financial institutes (dont think he has touched those here, yet). When will it end? When vol is all dry. There are no buyers left. Hence during short covering during such moments could spark off a good rally run.

Look at FR today. Tumbled all the way down to 80% representing more than 50% fall. This is a crash. Why? There were no buyers. Shortists had to sell down very far below to get their short positions locked in. Later on they had to cover back their positions and there are still no real buyers. The result is, a very ‘quick’ recovery, covering their shorts by buying back from new shortists who wanna join in the party. These kind of intraday volatility is typical of a counter that is buyer dry. No more buyers, and no more sellers (all sold already) you get a rock bottom. It is usually very gloomy at this stage. Value buying may begin. Traders however will wait for signs of a reversal to put probability on their side. I did not take any new short positions today simply because we’re range bound, again. Unless a lower low is formed, ie 2850 and 2730 is breached, it will CONFIRM the downtrend once again. A higher low formation is more bullish, and I’d tend to wait for a retracement( another higher low confirmation) and ride on the subsequent uptrend (does not imply bull market or mid term downtrend is broken).

But things like federal.. celestial, I would buy and not really look at it much once it has hit the price I have set. It hasn’t hit yet. When it does hit I will gauge the market sentiment there if it smells right. Do I smell blood, tears, sweat and gloom? If I don’t then I will tikam a bit maybe first. If it breaks my price (very important support) I’ll short sell to hedge, and average down near the next bottom. Shorting helps you know. You drive prices further, giving people a better price. How else will you expect to buy SGX at $5 or DBS at say $8? Yes I still want to buy cheap. I now recognise the signs during a bull market when everyone is just pouring money in and when I should sell to lock profits in. I havent experienced the gloom in a bear market yet so this is worth learning.

Ever thought stocks will come tumbling down more than 50% in just a few months? Look at Ausgroup. I wanted to sell at $2.3 but I took profit at $1.98 when I saw it couldnt go anywhere higher and distribution was detected. It has never come close again. Yesterday it broke that $1 support that would have been very hard to break. Now it is around 88c last I was told. Descending triangles everywhere, all testing major supports. This one won’t be just catching falling knives. This is putting pirhanas into your pants. Unlike my si fu who has millions in his safe, I do not have as much to keep averaging down. How many times people wanna average down really depends on how much they can afford also.

YZJ is interesting. Profit. A good one. But doesn’t do anything good because the mentality is that this year is a crap year for them. Lousy BDI. Lousy greenback. Lousy everything. Nothing good at all. Even if they profit over 200% isn’t gonna change the fact people’s sentiment is soured on the falling greenback. This, coupled with what value investors have learnt. Sell on news. When news come out, good profit, SELL. This theory is right and good, but only in a bull market. In a bear market it creates chaos and scares the rest into dumping too. Emotions is a human trait that will not change. For better or worse.

There are some counters that are pretty bearish. Cosco for one broke another support at 3.75 but I failed to lock in the position. Sigh. Shall not chase for now. Next support quite far down. Over a dollar. FerroChina is waiting to break its 1.28 support which will see it test its previous low at 1.02 again, my initial buy price. Locked in China Energy and Banyan tree when I saw it had breached support towards closing. 87c for its downside target?

YZJ was interesting today. Almost like a soap opera. A huge fight between the bulls at $1 and the bears at $1.01. The fight was mostly concentrated in this area and for a split second the bears took over and wiped out all of the bulls, but eventually the bulls clobbered back to close at 1.01, forming a doji candlestick. Indicators are still down however, hence my short position will stay in for now.

Confirmation day for STI tomorrow, to confirm a break in the triangle formation. UOBKH thinks our downside is gonna test previous low again before a strong rally brings us back up.  They used a 40dMA line to illustrate how all previous tests of resistance all  resulted in a sell down, strengthening this line. This is a 6 month downtrend line that seals our fate for now. What will tomorrow bring? We’ll find out, hopefully! Will we recover to close the gap, or will we go south and look for a pit at around 2700 region?US indices tradin slightly lower at the moment. Shall see how they close. Will catching our most wanted man prove to be good news for us? If he does get caught soon. So many questions. So few answers. Ultimately only Mr Market is right!

Here it is again. March. The month of the Pisces. It’s been a year since I last traveled. The difference is that this round it will be longer, a tad further, and down under. We’ve planned this since 6 months ago and it really seems like a bad idea somewhat. A long wait tends to put a damper on things. Uncertain plans also put another damper to the momentum. I live by plans and certainty perhaps and dislike uncertainty quite a lot. Naturally, surprises usually work very badly too.  My idea of a getaway is to do anything and everything that I can’t back at home. Verbs used to describe home would be fast, demanding, process, progress, and the usual protein/creatine/nicotine(private joke among the gymmers). Call me a couch potato but I think I walk pretty fast around here and I must have things done ASAP. I am impatient for I do not like events to stall and foil other plans. So the reverse would be to take my time, to enjoy what 1 hour is really worth. To lower my heart rate, and blood pressure. Trekking and backpacking reminds me of those days where I put on my full battle order and trek through the jungles during field camps. Not something I really enjoy as a holiday. I want time to wait for me. And events to unfold systematically. When my system is disrupted or interrupted it’ll naturally annoy me a lot. Try arranging my stuff on my table and see what kind of fit I will get into when I am leaving for work the next day and my wallet isn’t at its usual place.

So what kind of holiday seems ideal? A scenic tour is fine but riding on the bus 80% of the time isn’t the most exciting. Sitting by the beach bumming around sounds too boring. How about a spa cum medication kinda holiday? No phone calls, no internet, no external interferences. Just working on making time wait for me instead.

This March, will be our second time we’re traveling. This time heading down to Perth to be guests of the princess rach. I promised once upon a time I’ll visit and I’m fulfilling that promise(as I always do ). It is not the best time it seems right now due to major changes around but what’s planned is planned. Or is it?

It will be the one and only long holiday for a long time, at least for the next few years. But I reckon I will be more than happy with a short getaway from time to time, capitalizing over long weekends perhaps? We’ll see. I like getaways. Maybe cause I am jailed within my very own space where I live. Even a toilet break to a prisoner is heaven sent. Anywhere to get out of the cell. I’ll like to begin moving my plans of getting my own place into motion on my return. Loads of work to be done, think and resolve.

For now I’ll try and hype myself up enough for that trip that’s coming in 11 days? Anywhere is good, as long as it’s with my dear.

With the US markets closing sharply lower on Friday, Asian markets could be expected to open down as well come Monday. With STI hovering around the 3000 mark at closing last week, it is possible this line will be broken.  I do expect a possible gap down but such gaps on indices are usually closed eventually. I will be watching the selling on Monday to see if any breakdown has any tech rebound back towards 3000 which implies that we could still be in the symmetric triangle. DJIA has that lousy candlestick formation, but depending how one draws the trend-line, one might anticipate a tech rebound to imply that the ascending triangle line is intact still. A breakdown of it is bearish of course. Another possibility is a violation of the symmetric triangle. 12700 (resistance line of ascending triangle) is the level to watch for, and a break out of this level with good volume will be  bullish.

Short sellers could be all ready to go. I’ve run through some of the counters on my watch-list as I don’t really have time to do scans and analyze them. I’ll post my projection should markets head south but this is not an invite to follow!

Cosco-> Break of support at $4 on descending triangle formation could test $3.75 initially and eventually $2.7. All indicators bearish, good chance for it to break that crucial support.

China Energy-> A break of descending triangle at 88c should see an initial target of 64c. Early reversal indicator showed up, needs more confirmation. But bearish sentiment is unlikely to help support.

Ferro-> A hedge against my long position. If $1.28 support is broken, target could be back to $1. Early reversal indicator also sighted. Reported on Friday with a record turnover (although it is not a WOW in today’s sentiment)

GoldenAgri-> Indicators mostly down. A break at $1.02 is a good shorting opportunity towards 90c and then towards 80c.

Tat Hong-> Money flow is pointed up, surprisingly. However most of the other indicators are down. A break at support $2.18 should see $2 and subsequently test $1.64. Interestingly it broke down on Friday but is now testing resistance at $2.18. Unlikely to handle the selling pressure come monday? Eventual $1.38 target?